Using the 10 & 20 EMA Crossover to Navigate Volatile Markets
- FinancialWisdom
- Mar 30, 2023
- 4 min read
Updated: Jan 19
Reduce or even avoid drawdowns!
Summary:
In 2022, markets entered one of the most volatile and unpredictable environments in recent history. Traditional trend-following approaches struggled as sharp selloffs, violent rallies, and rapid regime changes became the norm. In response, this video shows why the 10 and 20 Exponential Moving Average (EMA) crossover on the S&P 500 weekly chart was introduced into our stock strategy. This simple but powerful market-direction filter has significantly improved drawdown control, clarified when to deploy capital aggressively, and helped align trading activity with broader market conditions.
Why 2022 Forced a Strategic Upgrade
2022 was not a typical bear market. It was characterised by:
Rapid interest rate tightening
Violent counter-trend rallies
Sector rotation at unprecedented speed
Compressed market cycles
Historically, our stock strategy has done a strong job of avoiding prolonged, methodical downturns by relying on stock-level price action, breakouts, and risk management. However, the erratic nature of 2022 exposed a vulnerability shared by many discretionary and systematic traders: trading too aggressively during hostile market regimes.
This prompted a full review of how we define when the market is tradable versus when capital preservation should dominate.
The Solution: Market Direction First
After extensive analysis, one conclusion stood out clearly:
Most trading losses occur when the broader market is working against your strategy.
To address this, we introduced a top-down market filter using the 10 and 20 EMA crossover on the S&P 500 weekly chart.
This tool does not replace stock selection or trade execution — it determines whether the environment is favourable to trade at all.
Understanding the 10 & 20 EMA Crossover
The 10 & 20 EMA crossover is a trend-following indicator designed to capture short-to-intermediate market direction.
How It Works
Bullish Condition:When the 10-week EMA crosses above the 20-week EMA, it signals improving momentum and a favourable trading window.
Bearish Condition:When the 10-week EMA crosses below the 20-week EMA, it signals deteriorating market conditions and increased risk.
Why EMAs (Not SMAs)?
The exponential nature of EMAs places greater weight on recent price action, allowing the system to:
React faster to regime changes
Reduce lag compared to simple moving averages
Improve responsiveness during volatile transitions
If you like our content so far don't forget to see our other blogs for similar material:
Backtesting the EMA Crossover on the S&P 500
A simple historical backtest applying the 10 & 20 EMA crossover to the S&P 500 alone produced striking results.
Despite its simplicity, the system:
Outperformed buy-and-hold
Reduced exposure during major drawdowns
Required very few trades
This is particularly notable when you consider that over 90% of professional fund managers fail to beat the index over a 10-year period, despite vast resources and high fees.
Backtest software used: MarketInOut – https://bit.ly/3oO1exN Discount code: FWSDM
Further Drawdown Reduction: Adding a Trailing Stop
To improve capital preservation further, we tested the EMA system with a 12% trailing stop.
The result:
Significantly lower drawdowns
Faster exit during sharp market breaks
Slight reduction in upside, but improved risk-adjusted returns
This reinforces a key principle:
Survival beats optimisation.
Why We Didn’t Use This Filter Before
Prior to 2022, our strategy already had natural defensive properties:
Breakout setups disappear in weak markets
Risk is predefined per trade
Poor environments naturally reduce exposure
However, 2022 demonstrated that market-level filters matter, even for strong stock-level systems. The speed and severity of regime shifts required an additional layer of protection.
Why the 10 & 20 EMA Crossover Works
This tool was chosen deliberately for three reasons:
1. Strong Trend Identification
It captures sustained market direction rather than short-term noise.
2. Clear, Objective Signals
There is no discretion, interpretation, or curve-fitting.
3. Decisive Trading Windows
It answers one critical question:
Is this a market to deploy capital, or preserve it?
Impact on Our Strategy Performance
When integrated into our stock strategy:
Blue curve: Strategy with EMA filter
Orange curve: Strategy without EMA filter
*Back test software: MarketInOut use Link - bit.ly/3oO1exN and code = FWSDM For a discount*
The decline visible in the orange curve is largely attributable to 2022. The EMA-filtered version materially reduced damage while remaining fully engaged during favourable periods.
2024 Update
The EMA filter has continued to prove its value beyond 2022, helping maintain alignment with broader market momentum while avoiding emotional or reactive decision-making.
Risk Management Still Comes First
No indicator is foolproof.
The EMA crossover does not replace:
Diversification
It supports them by ensuring trades are taken in environments where probability is already skewed in your favour.
Final Thoughts
Markets evolve. Strategies must evolve with them.
The addition of the 10 & 20 EMA crossover has strengthened our ability to:
Reduce drawdowns
Trade selectively
Stay objective during volatility
Preserve capital during hostile regimes
By staying adaptive, rule-based, and probability-driven, we dramatically improve long-term survival and compounding.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Is the EMA crossover a standalone trading strategy?
No. It is a market direction filter, not a stock selection system.
Why use the S&P 500 specifically?
It reflects broad market breadth and risk appetite across equities.
Why weekly charts instead of daily?
Weekly charts reduce noise and false signals, aligning with swing and position trading.
Does this mean you stop trading entirely when bearish?
Position size is reduced significantly or exposure goes to cash, depending on setups.
Can this work for other markets?
Yes — indices, commodities, and even crypto can be analysed using similar principles.
The Financial Wisdom Trading Strategy can be seen in this video, inclusive of the EMA rule.
Related Reading
Inside the Financial Wisdom Weekly Consolidation Breakout Framework
Risk Management in Trading: The Foundation of Long-Term Profitability
Published by FinancialWisdomTV.com Trading Education | Risk Management | Trading Psychology
Hi Gareth,
I have a question. But first I thank you for the videos. What Are the tax ramifications for all the selling using the 10/20 strategies? plus what if you are interested in dividends ? how would that work? Sounds that the 10/20 you create a portfolio for an account that would be just using that strategy. Example- if you start the year with 500 shares of Apple and you accumulated 400 more then you have a cross over you would sell all. you would lose the dividends and you would be responsible for capital gains. Were as if you buy and hold you get the paid dividends quarterly, and you are Not paying capital gains.
powerful, many thanks @FinancialWisdom. I did some additional testing of this on Trendspider which covers 30 years and still get similar, slightly less optimal, results but the broad strokes are fully intact. One could go crazy backtesting all the variations (and running the risk of curve fitting*) but I think the main take away is the safety net this creates and the go signal on trades you pointed out. *Interesting piece on curve fitting: https://www.quantifiedstrategies.com/curve-fitting-trading/
Hi FW,
Thank you for your valuable article, video and your efforts.
Is it somehow possible to set up this strategy in (custom) MACD settings so that we get the MACD buy and sell signals exactly in the same time as 10 EMA/20 EMA happens?
Hi Gareth ,
thank you again for your great support with videos and articles like this one . I have a question regarding this strategy , do you think work better with QQQ or SPY then stocks like AAPL or NVDA etc ?
Thank you
Hi FW,
how this indicator 10,20 ema weekly work in conjunction with the weekly MACD ?
I understand they work in the same way. I purchased your strategy booklet, but it is not clear to me how to apply the new indicator in your strategy, especially when there are conflicting situations between MACD and EMA
tnx for your update